Topics

1. Sep, 2017

Dear oh dear… I waited several week to watch various debate and as a commentator I am truly amazed.

Yes we are very stupid! We have been drawn away from issues that affect so many people only to be drawn into issues that affect very few people. But more importantly those issues can be dealt with however someone dying simply because a drug is not on the PBS. What if that person breakthrough is the very one needed to stop cancer? People don’t think like that!

Let’s look at a few of the matters:

Section 44 … well the law is the law, this one is a no brainer. When one makes application to stand for election section 44 is part of what you sign off on…so why aren’t the checks and balances done then?

Marriage equality… again the law says and it was also designed biologically that family and marriage is based in the relationship between a man and a woman. Simply amend the defacto laws and introduce a human right bill… Call it the same sex marriage bill if you wish. No one can tell anyone that they cannot fall in love or live a certain lifestyle… but why destroy something that has worked for such a long time… The old saying if it is not broke don’t fix it applies in this case. For the record I am voting yes but not because I believe in it!

Power… this is one of the greatest messes ever… no one getting on with the business. This is the madness of the climate change industry. Climate change has been happening for more than a billion years and it will go on happening… yes we have an impact, not denying that however that will not change the sun moon and stars at all. An asset rich nation we are but stupidity has cost us decades of what could have seen Australia as being socially the most advanced country in the world. Other nations have done the same and what have we learnt from it… nothing!

Opportunity lost… again on power, we had the opportunity 20 years ago to lead the world but squandered it away through single minded stupidity. We were so far ahead in renewables and could have set a 50 years plan then to transition but we didn’t and have lost out on three levels. It’s called a lack of planning and leadership. I refer to the Titanic… that is what Australia is in this regard and the captains and owners are doing the same thing to our country.

Why do we even consider ourselves an International country…we are not! Here is a statement directly for the bureaucrats and politicians. Cut the amount of overseas aid and stop looking at us running International standards and issues.  We have too many people doing it really tough here… pensioners, the ill, the homeless, youth. Aged care is a mess. Medicare & Human services are bankrupting us. Any country who will not take proper care of those who defend it is lacking in morality. Youth is our future and they need to be fostered and helped.

And so life goes on as does this stupid 2 party political farce and 3 tiers of government totally out of control. Spending… Spending…Spending but ever increasingly going backwards. If we could have 5 Royal commission to change our country that would be worthwhile they would be… Aged care, Child Custody, Veterans Affairs, Medical incompetence, Law and order. Make them open ended and make them accessible by mature and responsible people who know how to have a real discussion and debate. Then implement the findings… but that would be too sensible, wouldn’t it!

We need to start doing what is the right thing for the many and not what is simply popular for the few. 

7. Jul, 2017

I have spent the 2 months  since the budget looking at this and studying worldwide effects and problems …One word Yes … how bad will it be … not catastrophic, but here is a quick summary:

Up to 20% of new home buyers will be in trouble and could probably default on their mortgages.

Business will be at its lowest confidence in 3 decades. Wages and employment growth will not meet targets.  Don’t expect renewables to save us we have already missed that boat. But the fact is that renewables could never save us anyway.

We are already in Austerity measures with the poorest and most disadvantaged paying dearly.

Technology advances are out stripping jobs development training and employment. We are already at a technology lag and falling further behind having spent much on outdated and non-productive infrastructure.

Our economy can only shrink based on 2 factors, jobs growth and credit ratings.

Why could this happen? … another quick summary:

Too many Government change overs and a lack of policy direction…this can be blamed squarely on 2 party politics and both the ALP and LNP are to blame.

The mechanism for raising capital is constantly low… ie: bonds are being issued now at a take up rate that is not being met.

Worldwide credit rating are taking a battering and we are not exempt… it is possible we could climb to $1T in debt ceiling within 3-4 years.

An on flow effect is using short term monetary policy to fix what may be unfixable with monetary strategy.

Another on flow effect is that corporate debt is becoming unobtainable and expensive… a double whammy!

Real cash and assets are now being valued less that paper and e currency. You could call this a false economy!

Policy, especially Fiscal policy could be flawed by using estimates that may not be achievable… note: estimates have an up and down value, however if those values are exceeded especially downward the exponential long term damage is very large indeed.

China, the unknown skeleton in the closet!

I am more than happy to talk about it with anyone who wants to have a sensible conversation.

17. Mar, 2017

Originally state governments owned the generation, supply, infrastructure and maintenance, delivery and billing of electricity. Wayne Goss coined the phrase the states will tend to favour exploitation even at the expense of good husbandry. That was given their dependency on the federal Government for funding. Thus began or had already begun the selloff of both state and federal assets.

People need to understand how energy/electricity works now. Power is generated by companies, sold to suppliers, on sold to re-sellers who sell it to you. That is 2 extra operators in the chain, usually large companies and in Australia’s case now with a number foreign owned. They need to generate a profit to be in business. However they contribute little to infrastructure and the network or grid and literally nothing to power generation.

The grid is what we know most about, power poles wires, in some cases underground supply especially in new areas. There are sub stations for distribution and large transformers for turning up and turning down the power. Large station control delivery at certain times of peak usage and lesser usage to areas and regions. Electricity is constant in the grid.  We also see those great big towers running across the landscape. Like telephony many of these assets are more than 50 years old and poorly maintained now.

How power is generated… Power stations…coal burning behemoths, gas turbine power stations, solar, wind and in our case a wonderful infrastructure project called the snowy mountains. I used to live in Canberra as a lad and went there often and studied it. This was surely one of the greatest infrastructure projects undertaken in our country but that was a different time and Australia was a different place. There is also an Australian development known as wave power and also a system of converting water by hydrolysis and tapping the hydrogen. … And of course Nuclear.

The way power is sold must be understood as well… no longer do you get your energy from the state government…you get it re seller who also buy it…however they buy it in blocks not kilowatt hours. The blocks are valued by time…remember electricity in the grid is constant. Power can be sold across borders from Victoria to South Australia for example. However you need to understand that power for business consumers and power for residential consumers is also different… business demands power…consumers just need or want it.

In South Australia recently the problem was that storm damaged the infrastructure and renewable supply wasn’t sufficient. For the infrastructure to fail says a lot…poor design, poor engineering and cost saving! Renewables not being good enough speak more about Government failure. We had the advantage in the 1990 with eminent scientists who lead the world. I know one of them personally who trained the 2 owners of the largest solar providers in the world now…we literally gave away the technology. Apparently we have also lost wave generation to Northern European countries however I may stand corrected.

Solar (most renewables) are puzzling for many people as they think it can power anything… at this point and for the foreseeable future no… 12V Dc doesn’t supply well to business and has storage problems. These can be overcome at the residential consumer level but at this point the cost is generally too high for average consumers to be palatable.

So what is a possible solution…it’s almost impossible now without digging very deep. 1. Give power generation and infrastructure back to government who can joint venture it with new technologies. 2. Use 5th generation coal for up to 50 years but it must have a 95% plus emissions control. Keep our coal and use it here as a means of value adding for our economy and jobs…we also need it for steel manufacturing. 3. Adopt a policy of renewables across all states that is achievable and educate consumers on the how when where and why of electricity. 4. For #1 you need a large infrastructure fund… build it and they will come… including new technologies. Those new technologies such as magnetic OH mono rails require less energy and run on solar power… the message is build better infrastructure that includes the network. 5. Develop and keep the new technologies. Plan a mix of technology use over a 50 year period…that’s a plan. A plan needs to be implemented to work properly and in this case needs to be long term. But let’s not forget to adopt and adapt and not settle for second (remember the NBN) best. Not bouncing along from ne policy to another from election to election. 6 Get better politicians and government. 

11. Mar, 2017

I believe many people are fed up with the current system and feel that it has only failed us so here is something to think about:

Let’s get rid of “Canberra” and parliamentary sittings…with IT today it is possible to have meetings and debates on the internet. There are several advantages to this. One is that we would cut the travel perks and benefits to politicians drastically. A second is that we would probably end up with less career politicians. Third we would have our politicians at their electorate where they belong. In the USA all federal politicians live in Washington…we could adopt the reverse of that. I believe it would be better as politicians would see far more of their electorate and its issues.

With this you would also have a lesser effect of Lobbyists… maybe they would disappear altogether.

Here another part of this paradigm that the politicians may feel very unhappy with ….24 hour surveillance of their building…back and front door to see who comes and goes. No more dinners and gifts… suddenly normal people would be running the country.

Oh, did I mention, no investments while in parliament…they can income split with their spouse or partner so they (not the member) can have investment properties or shares. But these must be declared fully with 30 days of purchase.

Let’s also ban donations completely…that would spell the end of party politics OMG REPRESENTATION AT LAST.

Now let’s see how will introduce these new ideas to Parliament… SILENCE!

Look at the photo ...you understand.

7. Mar, 2017

Will the cut in week end penalty rates create jobs? I doubt it, and here is why. Let’s look at it from 2 perspectives.

Firstly the average business and the penalty rate cuts. By the government and its departments own figures the average is going to be $6000 lost per person. That I doubt to start with. But simply put if an average company or employer has 5-10 employees only 2-3 of them are going to be on week end shifts. In many cases a lot of those are casual especially in hospitality and retail. So let’s say 1 is on a full time employment package. The employer would save $6000. The obvious question is that going to pay to create another job… NO  

Secondly let’s look at jobs… jobs are not created by cutting penalty rates they are created by profit, growth and expenditure (from spending) when a company or employer sees a need or opportunity to employ someone. This is where the company tax bill giving $50B back to companies is/will be a failure and this is for several reasons:

Future jobs are not certain as I have shown before. Up to 50% of jobs from the last 15 years will not be here in 25 years… truck drivers, warehousing staff such as pickers, packers etc, check out operators… anything that can be computerized will be.

Growth has and is still slowing and will do for the next 3-6 odd years as we sort all of this out.

Confidence has and is continuing to shrink and will do so as above for 3-6 odd years.

Spending …as governments grapple with all of the above and also the public spending will decrease especially as we continue with this foolishness of old aged economic/political paradigms.

Shareholders’ interests… simple, shareholders want returns and as usual money will be directed to them before employees especially given all of the above.

The first four are occurring because the political and economic mix and policy in Australia is all wrong …there is no balance simply because there is no real plan and definitely no foresight.

Other points come into play such as how does a business really run and where to you place government (public money) funding where it will work best in the economy.

Three points are they are really important. Government must believe business people are stupid because they keep thinking they need a hand with DFAT and Tax based incentives… business doesn’t need a hand… what it needs is for government to set in place a better plan and stick with it for at least an economic cycle. Secondly, is spending and you only have to ask Harvey Norman this and he will confirm it… Instead of giving money to other countries and big business give it to those who spend or need to spend it … pensioners (an 8% increase), those who are disabled or have illness, run a decent Newstart and TAFE system with OJT and apprenticeships, build some homes (50000 of them) for the homeless. Then not only are you spreading money around the economy but you are doing it in many tranches. Lastly but importantly employ Australians (lessen the 457 intake by 50%) and support Australian productivity first. That includes a business development and infrastructure fund.